NFL81 draft preview

In order of first-round selection:

 

1. Buccaneers, 3-13, fifth in NFC Central—Still struggling to find their way in the world. Tom Flores's reluctance to promote Tommy Kramer ahead of Steve Spurrier suggests Tampa doesn't yet have its quarterback of the future. Might California's dart-throwing Rich Campbell be Bay bound?

 

2. Steelers, 4-12, fourth in AFC Central—Hard to believe given their placement in this draft, but the rebound is already underway for the NFL76 runners-up. Playing without its phenomenal young linebacker, Mike Hunt, Pittsburgh won four of its last seven games in NFL80. The Steelers have drafted running backs, wide receivers and offensive linemen in recent years. Unless they take Campbell or Portland's Neil Lomax to push and eventually replace Terry Bradshaw, the pick figures to be a defensive stud. The top prospects are Oklahoma defensive end Keith Gary, Iowa defensive tackle John Harty, North Carolina linebacker Lawrence Taylor, UCLA safety Kenny Easley or Texas Tech cornerback Ted Watts.

 

3. Browns, 4-12, third in AFC Central—New coach Dan Reeves isn't waiting around anymore. He got tired of waiting to see if he'd eventually get Tom Landry's old job in Dallas and surprisingly took the Cleveland job before the Cowboys came open. Now he doesn't appear willing to wait around for a bunch of rookies to grow up together. He is rebuilding his offense around a couple of young-veteran trade acquisitions, former Seahawk quarterback Bobby Sessions and former San Francisco halfback Tony Reed, so look for Cleveland in the draft to restock its retirement-depleted secondary. Easley, Watts or Southern California safety Ronnie Lott might be in the plans.

 

4. Raiders, 6-10, fifth in AFC West—The NFL78 champions got very old very fast, so Oakland could go any number of directions. Any of the top defensive backs and speedy Kansas WR David Verser seem like the most likely possibilities.

 

5. Seahawks, 6-10, fourth in AFC West—Has fast-starting Seattle stalled? This is still a young team, so look for Jack Patera to continue patiently building. Seahawk fans want a star running back, but Patera might be inclined to stand pat. After cutting Sherman Smith early in NFL80, James Betterson lost the HB1 job while injured to Sterling Rolfe. The guy to look out for moving forward, though, is HB3 James Jones. He was the Raiders' second-round pick out of Mississippi State last season and averaged 5.3 yards on 396 carries and had zero fumbles in NFL80. In the first round of the NFL81 draft, center Rick Donnalley of North Carolina, guard Mark May of Pittsburgh or tackle Keith Van Horne of Southern California is more likely to find a home here.

 

6. Broncos, 6-10, third in AFC West—Denver fans are getting antsy. Might the Broncos be ready for a breakout behind newly acquired quarterback Danny White. Marv Levy is believed to like both Verser and San Jose State wide receiver Mark Nichols.

 

7. Vikings, 6-10, fourth in NFC Central—Where's the bottom for this franchise? The retirements keep coming—Alan Page's among them this offseason. The top defensive-tackle prospects are Harty, Oklahoma's Greg Meisner, Long Beach State's Ben Rudolph and South Carolina State's Robert Geathers.

 

8. Falcons, 6-9-1, fifth in NFC West—It's felt like a more precipitous fall for Atlanta, the NFL78 runner-up, than for Oakland, the NFL78 champs, only because the Falcons appeared to be headed up the ladder while the Raiders had been hanging on the top rungs for several seasons. Rogers or UCLA halfback Freeman McNeil could recharge the running game. Taylor or Alabama linebacker E.J. Junior would boost the defense. The falcons did a lot of trading around during the NFL80 draft and ended up selecting three linebackers: Otis Wilson of Louisville in the first round, Buddy Curry of North Carolina in the second and Bill Roe of Colorado in the third. NONE made the squad, and lackluster linebacker play was the primary culprit in last season's defensive letdown.

 

9. Colts, 7-9, fifth in AFC East—Did Joe Gibbs fall into fortune? Or meander into a mess? That Baltimore is not among the NFL's elite does not compute, so neither does the new coach's first draft choice. Both offensive and defensive lines are old, and the secondary must replace a couple of retirees. Here's a stab in the dark: South Carolina tight end Willie Scott.

 

10. Bears, 7-9, third in NFC Central—Bill Walsh only thought he loved coaching up quarterbacks (Greg Cook, Virgil Carter, Ken Anderson, …) Then he met Bob Avellini. Even if Campbell or Lomax is on the board, however, it's unlikely the Bears would take one given that promising Marc Wilson is on the depth chart. Last year's first pick, defensive tackle Myron Lapka, worked out as NFL80 rookie of the year. This draft is awfully deep in linebackers (Taylor, Junior, Pittsburgh's Hugh Green, Michigan's Mel Owens and Baylor's Mike Singletary), and Chicago's are getting old.

 

11. Bengals, 7-9, second in AFC Central—The first-generation Bengals are gone. Center Bob Johnson and tight end Bob Trumpy retired. Cincinnati, so often cited as the model expansion franchise, is still trying to take the next big step, to true NFL elite. One gets the feeling that NFL81 is the last chance for this core of players and this coach. The defense has to get much better fast; luckily, this draft is deep with players who help that happen. Whatever else happens, do not look for the Bengals to draft a quarterback. Not only do they have two on the roster behind Ken Anderson who already know they can play in this league--fifth-year QB2 Bob Bateman (100.1 rating on 212 attempts in NFL80) and QB3 Jim Zorn (114.7 on 41)--they also in Week 10 picked up QB4 Steve Fuller, who in NFL79 was the Cardinals' first-round draft choice out of Clemson. Frankly, it could be that Bill Johnson knows not what to do with this situation.  Walsh was the assistant over the position when Paul Brown was still the coach, and he left in a huff when Johnson got the job instead of him. There are rumors that Johnson is afraid he'll lose the team altogether if he gives up on Anderson—Walsh's great student and find out of tiny Augustana.

 

12. Jets, 8-8, third in AFC East, playoffs participants—Interesting conundrum for Lou Holtz. His team's weakness in NFL80 was defense, but Joe Namath, whose spurts of brilliance are primarily responsible for any success this team has ever had, retired. Hard to see Campbell or Lomax slipping further than New York's draft position if either is still on the board this late.

 

13. Eagles, 8-8, fifth in NFC East—Eagles fans groaned when new coach Dick Vermeil took Ricky Bell instead of Tony Dorsett in the NFL77 draft, but nobody in Philadelphia is disappointed now that Dorsett's career is in flux and Bell is coming off an NFL80 rushing title. Two years ago, Vermeil plucked little-known Phil Simms out of Morehead State as his quarterback of the future. With Harold Carmichael's retirement, Vermeil might seek a receiver. Or given that four Eagles defensive backs retired, he might choose among the deep secondary crop. Lott's fellow Southern Cal safety, Dennis Smith, might still be on the board—as might cornerbacks Hanford Dixon of Southern Mississippi and Bobby Butler of Florida State.

 

14. Giants, 8-8, fourth in NFC East—He's credited with turning Elvin Bethea from excellent to a two-time AFC defensive player of the year and sure-bet future Hall of Famer … with taking raw Robert Brazile out of little Jackson State and turning him into the NFL's most fearsome linebacker … with crafting and recrafting Houston's phenomenal defense since joining the Oilers as an assistant coach in 1974. Ed Biles's resume, circa NFL81, sounds a lot like that of Bill Arnsparger's, circa NFL74. Now can Biles pick up where retired Arnsparger left on in New York? He says he's going to give Jerry Golsteyn a chance at quarterback, and he appears happy to hand off to Chuck Muncie (acquired in a trade with New Orleans for Tony Dorsett). John Jefferson appears set to ascend at wide receiver. Look for the old defensive coach to pick defense in Round 1.

 

15. Cardinals, 8-8, third in NFC East—Hey, Jimmy Hart's not done, after all. His 15^th NFL season might've been his best (24 touchdown passes, four interceptions, NFC Pro Bowl starter). This, of course, can't mask the fact that the Cardinals are an aging, never-quite-was team who almost surely are on the downward slide. This slot might be where one of the two No. 1a halfback prospects—Oklahoma's David Overstreet or Auburn's James Brooks, for example—is called.

 

16. Bills, 8-8, fourth in AFC East—Recent drafts have focused on defense, with impressive results. Defensive linemen Ross Browner and Rod Horn—Buffalo's top picks in NFL78 and NFL80—were All-Pros last season. Linebacker John Anderson—the Bills' second rounder in NFL78—could've been. Another NFL80 pick, cornerback Mark Lee, might break out in NFL81. It's time for Buffalo to focus on defense. A replacement for Joe Ferguson is in order, but it's unlikely that a first-round-worthy quarterback will be available this late. Tight ends Scott or Dave Young of Purdue would be a fit.

 

17. Cowboys, 8-7-1, second in NFC East—When Reeves shocked the football world by leaving Landry's nest for Cleveland, the once-steady franchise appeared staggered—reaching out for recently fired Marchibroda as its new head coach instead of promoting another home-grown assistant, Mike Ditka. In these days after Doomsday, the Cowboys need plenty of defensive help, but offensive-minded Marchibroda has been focused so far on retooling the offense. College-star halfbacks Earl Campbell and Charles White have been brought in to challenge incumbent Doug Dennison. Might Marchibroda shock by calling one of the top-flight fullbacks, Pittsburgh's Randy McMillan or Penn State's Booker Moore?

 

18. Chargers, 9-7, second in AFC West, playoffs participants—Here's the improving, young team that is everyone's sexy choice to take over the division in the 1980s with the Raiders and Chiefs in decline. If Dan Fouts is going to ever get it, now is the time. Still, do not look for Jim Hanifan and the San Diego decision-makers to directly challenge Fouts with the drafting of a quarterback (Clint Longley is already here to nip at Fouts's heels). Instead, look for the Chargers to get Fouts another weapon to work with: Verser, Nichols or one of a lot of second-tier wideout prospects (Florida's Cris Collinsworth, Mississippi State's Mardye McDole, Auburn's Byron Franklin and Ohio State's Doug Donley).

 

19. Chiefs, 9-7, first in AFC West, playoffs participants—The NFL77 champions have been simultaneously winning and rebuilding, but maybe each effort has taken its toll on the other. Kansas City's defense was poor last season, and two starters (DE2 Wilbur Young and CB2 Kerry Reardon) retired. If Gary and Thompson are both gone, Paul Wiggin might chase either of a couple of other highly regarded defensive ends: Alabama State's Curtis Green or Villanova's Howie Long.

 

20. Saints, 10-5-1, second in NFC West, playoffs participants—Rallied late in NFL80 to return to the playoffs after winning the NFC in NFL79. A lack of high-end wide receivers appeared to derail New Orleans in the postseason. With WR2 Don Herrmann's retirement, that need is all the more acute, but Hank Stram seems excited about the young depth already on the roster. The best guess here is that one of the very good defensive-back prospects lands with the Saints here.

 

21. Lions, 9-6-1, second in NFC Central, playoffs participants—Joe Reed (mostly) sat around for eight seasons, waiting for Greg Landry to relinquish the QB1 job. Alas, Landry returned to the All-Pro team in NFL80, and Reed now goes to work in the Giants' training camp, trying to finally earn a starting job. The NFL77 runners-up might look for a project quarterback (Washington's Tom Flick, New Mexico's Brad Wright or Purdue's Mark Herrmann, for example). And it could certainly use a kicker or punter to push Kelby Walker (Georgia's Rex Robinson and Tennessee's Alan Duncan are the top prospects) or 12^th-year Herman "Thunderfoot" Weaver (Michigan State's Ray Stachowicz or Arkansas' Steve Cox?). But the more likely scenario in Round 1 is that Rick Forzano selects one of this draft's long line of linebackers—one of the previously mentioned blue chippers or one of several just-off-the-peak prospects (Syracuse's Jim Collins, Texas's Robin Sendlein, Pittsburgh's Rickey Jackson and Louisiana State's Lyman White).

 

22. Packers, 9-6-1, first in NFC Central, playoffs participants—Green Bay is not only already good; it's also a land of opportunity. Six Packers retired—including starting center Larry McCarren, guard Gale Gillingham and tight end Charlie Sanders—and HB3 I.M. Hipp left for the Canadian Football League. There is depth in queue for the two open interior-line positions, but the tight-end slot is wide open. Gary Lewis of Texas-Arlington or Clay Brown of Brigham Young might be the pick.

 

23. Patriots, 10-6, second in AFC East, playoffs participants—New England persevered to the postseason (and nearly eliminated Miami in the second round) despite an unusual rash of severe injuries: TE1 Russ Francis, HB2 Sam Cunningham, LB2 Sam Hunt and QB1 Steve Grogan each missed significant stints of the season. (Of course, Grogan's absence turned out to be a case of addition by subtraction as the Bobby Scott-led Patriots played significantly better.) In the off-season, retirements have been the bugaboo—ravaging especially the offensive line. All-Pro T1 Leon Gray was among the departures. Beyond Donnalley, May and Van Horne, this drafts best offensive-line prospects are centers Todd Thomas of North Dakota and Les Studdard of Texas, guards Curt Marsh or Washington and Howard Richards of Missouri and tackles Brian Holloway of Stanford and Leonard Mitchell of Houston.

 

24. 49ers, 10-5-1, second in NFC West, playoffs participants—It's obvious, right? The pass defense is the team's worst-rated unit, so we should look for San Francisco to pick up a stud rusher (Auburn's Frank Warren?) or ball-hawking back (Nebraska's Russell Gary?). Not so fast. Monte Clark loves to have a cadre of top-flight halfbacks, and HB3 Tony Reed was traded and HB4 Tony Nathan left for the CFL. Don't be surprised to see Minnesota's Marion Barber, Boise State's David Hughes or Missouri's James Wilder to be the pick here.

 

25. Redskins, 11-5, first in NFC East, NFC runners-up—Steve McMichael was almost good enough to convince George Allen to give up his famous disdain for rookies. Almost. A couple of veteran linebackers, Rusty Tillman and Carl Gersbach, retired, so look for Washington to restock its depth here.

 

26. Oilers, 13-3, first in AFC Central, AFC runners-up—Went to overtime in the AFC championship before giving up their NFL79 championship defense. Houston is amazing. In Week 7 of NFL80, the Oilers lost their best defensive player, LB1 Brazile, for the season to ligament damage. Up stepped veteran Greg Bingham into LB1 and second-year men Barry Krauss and George Andrews, Houston's first- and second-round picks in NFL79, into LB2 and LB3; these were. Brazile subsequently and sadly retired in light of the severe knee injury, but the Oilers have plenty of young depth at the position. LB4 George Cumby was the first-round pick in NFL80, and the injury pickup for Brazile was interesting, too:  Whip Walton, Chicago's second-round choice out of San Diego State in NFL78. Want a wild-card name? How about little halfback Joe Delaney, out of in-the-neighborhood Northwest Louisiana?

 

27. Rams, 11-5, first in NFC West, NFC champs and NFL80 runners-up—Four of the key contributors in Los Angeles' decade of dominance—guard Tom Mack, wide receiver Ron Jessie, safety Dave Elmendorf and linebacker Jack Reynolds—retired, so there's plenty of opportunity here. But because Chuck Knox always has good, young depth throughout the roster, don't expect this selection to necessarily map to a position of need. And this late in the first round, such a player might be deemed to be Tennessee tackle Tim Irwin or Florida linebacker David Little.

 

28. Dolphins, 11-4-1, first in AFC East, AFC and NFL80 champs—Don Shula's masterful renovation of Miami remains the most astonishing story in the NFL of the last 10 years. How Shula stitched together the remnants of early '70s Dolphins glories, refugees of the moribund World Football League and a recent slate of much-derided-at-the-moment defensive draftees (NFL77's Gary Green, NFL78's Larry Bethea, NFL79's Rick Sanford and NFL80's Lance Mehl) into Super Bowl champions is beyond explanation. Where might Shula turn in the NFL81 draft? Quarterback, where eighth-year Don Strock is the youngest buck, is a good bet, and Shula is said to be in love with multi-talented Boston University quarterback Jim Jensen. T2 Wayne Moore retired, and K1 Garo Yepremian is going to some day—Florida State tackle Ken Lanier and kicker Bill Capece wouldn't have far to move to become Dolphins. But picking which body Shula might pick … well, that's anybody's guess, and the only guess here is that it will be somebody brilliant.